I checked 7 public opinion journals on Thursday, July 03, 2025 using the Crossref API. For the period June 26 to July 02, I found 18 new paper(s) in 6 journal(s).

International Journal of Public Opinion Research

Ambiguity in the Campaign, and in Office: How Parties’ Ambiguous Policy Statements Affect Party Support
Jonas Lefevere, Ambroos Verwee
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Recent work investigates the electoral impact of parties’ ambiguous policy statements, but we lack insight in how different forms of ambiguous statements affect voters’ party evaluations. Moreover, research assumes that ambiguity inoculates parties from backlash once they take up office, but no evidence to date tests this assumption. We study how parties’ ambiguous policy statements, in the form of vagueness and inconsistency, affect voters’ party evaluations, and whether voters update their party evaluations once a party takes a clear policy decision when in office. We find that inconsistent policy statements result in more negative party evaluations. Vague statements only benefit the party if it has a position that mismatches that of the voter. When the party takes up office and must take a clear policy decision, voters update their party evaluation depending on the match between the party’s policy decision and the voter’s position: voters’ evaluations after seeing the decision increase slightly compared to their earlier evaluation if the decision aligns with the voter’s position, but decrease when the decision runs counter to the position. Importantly, neither vagueness nor inconsistency in the party’s earlier policy statement inoculate the party against this decreased evaluation.
Silence Across the Ocean? A Comparative Look at the Effects of the “Spiral of Silence” in China and the US Regarding Fukushima Wastewater Release Discourse
Miaohong Huang, Xu Dong, He Gong
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Amid the Fukushima wastewater release controversy, this study explores the spiral of silence theory’s role in international digital discourse, using the cases of China and the US Through a survey conducted in both countries (N = 999), this study investigates how perceived congruency with four distinct reference groups predicts individuals’ intentions to voice opinions on social media. The results underscore expert and SNS (social networking sites) contact congruency as key predictors of driving online opinion expression, with significant differences between the countries. While participants from both countries showed increased expression intentions when their opinions were congruent with SNS contacts and experts, these trends manifested more strongly in China. This study advances the spiral of silence theory by elucidating the sources that shape online opinion climates and exploring the congruency-expression dynamics across countries with differing cultural and socio-political contexts. It offers key insights for global communication strategies in complex scientific and controversial issues.
Online Surveys in Nondemocratic Contexts: Evidence from Russia
Viyaleta Korsunava, Boris Sokolov
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How do non-probability online surveys perform in nondemocratic contexts? To address this question, we compared the data from two web surveys (WSs), conducted in Russia in 2018 and 2020, using opt-in panels, to the offline data from wave 7 of the World Values Survey (fieldwork in Russia 2017), round 7 of the Russian Social Survey (fieldwork in Russia 2018–2019), and the 2010 Russian Census data. We found that (a) WSs under-covered older, less educated and rural respondents, compared with both the offline sample and the Census benchmarks; (b) various types of straightlining were somewhat more prevalent in WSs, but the average time spent per item was comparable to that in the offline sample; (c) online respondents expressed considerably more liberal views on such issues as homosexuality, abortion, and divorce, as well as gender equality, compared with offline respondents (by 10% of the total scale range for each domain); and (d) WSs produced slightly different nomological networks of attitudinal orientations.
Political Trust and Electoral Behavior Among 16- and 17-Year-Old First-Time-Voters in Belgium
Linde Stals, Dieter Stiers, Anna Kern
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Citizens’ electoral behaviors tend to persist over time and are driven by long-standing political attitudes acquired during the formative years of adolescence. We contribute to this literature by building on the object-specific nature of political trust, captured by trust in order and representative institutions, and investigating its relationship with turnout and vote choices among Belgian 16- and 17-year-olds, who were eligible to vote during the 2024 European elections. Using this unique data from adolescent first-time voters, the results confirm the two-dimensionality of political trust and show that low trust leads to protest and radical voting. These findings highlight the importance of early political socialization in shaping political trust and electoral behavior to encourage constructive political engagement.
Pandemic, Governors, and Public Opinion: The Effect of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths on Public Support for America’s Governors
Alauna Safarpour, Matthew Baum
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A longstanding literature in American foreign policy holds that the American public’s support for war significantly depends on the number of U.S. casualties in the conflict (their number, rate, trend, proximity, etc.). While a pandemic is clearly not a war, many observers and political leaders have characterized the U.S. public policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic using the metaphor of wartime. This raises the question of whether such characterizations are more than mere metaphor. Has the American public’s response to pandemic-related casualties—cases and deaths—followed similar patterns to those found in the literature on public opinion and war? In this study, we assess the public’s responsiveness to COVID-19 casualties at different stages in the pandemic. Utilizing two large, 50-state surveys conducted during the two largest COVID surges, in winter 2021 and winter 2022, we test several hypotheses from the public opinion and war literature, including that proximity—spatial and temporal—influences public responses and that the public becomes desensitized to casualties over time. We find that in many respects, the public’s response to the pandemic does indeed mirror the patterns found with respect to public opinion and war.
Survey Enthusiast or Obligated Responder: Segmenting the Population Based on Government Survey Attitudes
Randal ZuWallack, John Boyle, James Dayton, Ronaldo Iachan, Matt Jans
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This paper explores population segments that differentiate people based on attitudes and perceptions about surveys and how those segments differ in survey participation intention. Our analysis finds 5 population segments across which general affinity toward surveys differs significantly. Survey Enthusiasts have high affinity toward surveys and underlying sense of civic responsibility to participate. Obligated Responders recognize the importance of participating, yet view surveys as an imposition. Reluctant Responders recognize survey participation as important but are moderately concerned about data misuse. The remaining 2 segments, the Disengaged and Shy Responders, have low affinities for survey participation. These findings suggest that effective survey designs should tailor different appeals and protocols to the motivations of a heterogeneous population. A multidimensional approach would parallel those approaches used in marketing where product differentiation and market segmentation help to successfully reach the consumer market.
The Ripple Effects of Time Inequality on Perceived Autonomy and Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea and OECD Democracies
Seungwoo Han, Seulki Lee-Geiller
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Social trust, a fundamental component of societal cohesion and democratic stability, is influenced by structural and social factors, including time inequality. This study investigates how time inequality, particularly extended work hours and constrained discretionary time, affects social trust through perceived autonomy. This study examines both direct and indirect pathways through which temporal disparities influence social trust, using path analysis and staged regression models to ensure methodological rigor. Findings reveal that extended work hours significantly reduce perceived autonomy, which in turn lowers social trust. Additionally, work hours have a direct negative impact on social trust, confirming time scarcity as an independent structural constraint on social cohesion. Path analysis, with maximum likelihood estimation, quantifies these relationships, while sequential regression models further decompose their mechanisms. This study employs cross-national comparative data from OECD democracies, demonstrating that time inequality’s effects extend beyond South Korea. These results underscore the global significance of time inequality and its policy implications. Addressing excessive work hours, promoting work–life balance, and ensuring equitable access to discretionary time are critical for strengthening social trust, fostering civic engagement, and enhancing democratic resilience in contemporary societies.

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

Executive approval and accountability: the impact of global shocks in less developed democracies
Lorena G. Barberia, Natália de Paula Moreira
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Framing refugees: experimental evidence from the United States, Canada, and Australia
Isabel Williams Skinner, Timothy B. Gravelle
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Journal of Official Statistics

Official Statistics and Government Decision Making: A Bibliometric and Thematic Analysis of Policy-Related Academic Research
Ana BoĹľiÄŤ VerbiÄŤ
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In this article, we conduct the first comprehensive bibliometric and thematic analysis of academic research involving official statistics and government decision making. By systematically analyzing the volume, trends, and impact of publications, we map the research and policy landscape, identify key research and policy topics, and uncover trends in the use of official statistics. We find that the use of official statistics data is more prevalent and has a greater impact on monetary policy research compared to other areas of policy making. We also observe a gradual transition from policy-related academic research on traditional topics, such as inflation, employment and economic growth, toward sustainability topics, such as renewable energy, carbon neutrality, green finance, and energy poverty. In addition, we provide ample evidence that China is becoming one of the most important sources of policy-related academic research, both domestically and globally. There is a mutual relationship between the official statistics authorities and the policy community, where both groups benefit from and contribute to the data’s relevance and reliability.

Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology

Temporal M-Quantile Models and Robust Bias-Corrected Small Area Predictors
MarĂ­a Bugallo, Domingo Morales, Nicola Salvati, Francesco Schirripa Spagnolo
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In small area estimation, it is a smart strategy to rely on data measured over time. However, linear mixed models struggle to properly capture time dependencies when the number of lags is large. Given the lack of published studies addressing robust prediction in small areas using time-dependent data, this research seeks to extend M-quantile models to this field. Indeed, our methodology successfully addresses this challenge and offers flexibility to the widely imposed assumption of unit-level independence. Under the new model, robust bias-corrected predictors for small area linear indicators are derived. Additionally, the optimal selection of the robustness parameter for bias correction is explored, contributing theoretically to the field and enhancing outlier detection. For the estimation of the mean squared error (MSE), a first-order approximation and analytical estimators are obtained under general conditions. Several simulation experiments are conducted to assess the performance of the new predictors and MSE estimators, as well as the optimal selection of the robustness parameter. Finally, an application to the Spanish Living Conditions Survey data illustrates the usefulness of the proposed predictors.
A Message from the Editors
Emily Berg, Brad Edwards
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The Confidence Interval Coverage (CIC): A Specific Utility Metric for Synthetic Data
James Edward Jackson
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The Confidence Interval Coverage (CIC) metric is proposed to assess the validity—and hence the specific utility—of confidence intervals computed from synthetic datasets. For a population parameter θ, the CIC estimates the coverage of synthetic data confidence intervals, by repeatedly computing confidence intervals for θ and recording the proportion of times they would be expected to enclose the true value. The efficacy of the CIC is demonstrated via both a simulation study and an empirical illustration using a teaching dataset from the England and Wales 2021 Census. The CIC is compared to the Confidence Interval Overlap (CIO) metric (Karr et al. 2006), a well-established metric for assessing specific utility.

Politics, Groups, and Identities

Emphasizing similarities or differences: framing effects in LGBTQ movement mobilization
Philip Edward Jones
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The influence of candidate traits on vice presidential nominee preference
Emma Schroeder, Alejandra Campos
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Public Opinion Quarterly

Advertising Online Surveys on Social Media: How Your Advertisements Affect Your Study
Anja Neundorf, Aykut Ă–ztĂĽrk
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Although the recruitment of online survey participants through paid social media advertisements is becoming increasingly common among survey researchers, we know little about how the content of advertisements influences the recruitment process. Our study systematically compares the effects of several approaches—being vague or explicit about the survey theme and offering material incentives—relying on 23 advertisements conducted in Turkey and Spain between May 2021 and June 2022, recruiting more than 30,000 respondents. Our article documents the important trade-offs that the content of an advertisement creates regarding cost and sample composition. We find that incentive-based advertisements can produce samples much closer to national population benchmarks; however, this also depends on the type of incentive. Thematic advertisements, which mention the political content of a survey, consistently return the cheapest samples, yet certain groups are overrepresented in these samples. Incentive-based advertisements also produce a generally higher response quality. We conclude our article by providing practical advice on which kind of advertisement to use, discussing the generalizability of our findings to other countries, and listing the main limitations of our study.
How Different Mixed-Mode Data Collection Approaches Impact Response Rates and Provision of Biomeasure Samples
Tarek Al Baghal, Jonathan Burton, Thomas F Crossley, Michaela Benzeval, Meena Kumari
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Social surveys can be enriched with the collection of objective health measures, allowing new types of research in both health and social sciences. We experimentally tested three alternative designs for collecting survey responses and biomeasures within a longitudinal survey. In the nurse-administered design, a nurse conducts the survey and collects biomeasures in person. In the interviewer-first design, an interviewer initially attempts to carry out the survey in person, collects a subset of biomeasures, and then leaves a further biomeasure sample collection kit with the respondent. The web-first design invites respondents to complete the survey in web mode, and a biomeasure sample collection kit is sent after they do so. Nonrespondents to their initial mode are followed up with in an alternate mode. The outcomes of interest are both (i) response to the survey, and (ii) take-up and completion of the biomeasure sample collection. The impact of the experimental design is tested on both outcomes, utilizing intention-to-treat analysis (that is, by allocated design). To account for the importance of channel of communication in the consent decision for biomeasures, we also analyze observed consent outcomes by realized mode of response, other survey factors, and respondent characteristics. Findings show that the web-first design is superior in obtaining survey response, with nonsignificant differences between in-person interviewer-administered and nurse-administered designs. Conversely, the web was the least effective design for obtaining biomeasures. These findings imply that there is a design trade-off between obtaining survey responses and biomeasures, and this should be considered in future studies.
Americanness Hierarchies: Partisanship and Perceptions of Racial Group Positions
Victoria S Asbury-Kimmel
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This study offers novel empirical insight and theoretical interventions regarding how Whites, Blacks, Latinos, and Asians are perceived in terms of “Americanness” among a nationally representative sample of White adults in the United States. The findings reveal that perceptions of racial groups’ Americanness differ significantly by political identification. Republicans and Independents typically regard Whites as the most American, but their opinions vary on other racial groups. Contrary to prior research, Republicans perceive Asians as more American than Latinos and Blacks, treating the latter two groups as essentially equal in terms of Americanness. In contrast, Democrats consider Blacks the most American, clearly differentiating them from other racial minorities. This research illuminates the subjective and politicized dimensions of status within the American national community and challenges existing theories on the hierarchical positioning of racial groups.