I checked 7 public opinion journals on Saturday, June 27, 2026 using the Crossref API. For the period June 20 to June 26, I found 13 new paper(s) in 3 journal(s).

Journal of Official Statistics

Re-Expressing the Proxy Pattern-Mixture Model as a Selection Model to Assist with Sensitivity Analysis
Seth Adarkwah Yiadom, Rebecca Andridge
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Proxy pattern-mixture models (PPMMs) have previously been proposed as a model-based framework for assessing the potential for nonignorable nonresponse in sample surveys and nonignorable selection in nonprobability samples. One defining feature of the PPMM is the single sensitivity parameter, Ď• , that ranges from 0 to 1 and governs the degree of departure from ignorability. While this sensitivity parameter is attractive in its simplicity, it may also be of interest to describe departures from ignorability in terms of how the odds of response (or selection) depend on the outcome being measured. In this paper, we re-express the PPMM as a selection model in order to better understand the underlying assumptions of the PPMM and the implied effect of the outcome on nonresponse (or selection). The selection model that corresponds to the PPMM is a quadratic function of the survey outcome and proxy variable, and the magnitude of the effect depends on the value of the sensitivity parameter, Ď• (missingness/selection mechanism), the differences in the proxy means and standard deviations for the respondent and nonrespondent populations, and the strength of the proxy as measured by the correlation between the outcome and the proxy in the respondent/selected sample. Large values of Ď• (beyond 0 . 5 ) may result in unrealistic selection mechanisms, and the corresponding selection model can be used to establish more realistic bounds on Ď• . We illustrate the results using a home pricing dataset extracted from the China Family Panel Studies.

Public Opinion Quarterly

Survey Experience and Nonresponse in an Online Probability Panel: A Survival Analysis
Katya Kostadintcheva, Patrick Sturgis, Jouni Kuha
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We fit discrete-time survival models to data from an online probability panel (OPP), where the outcome is the respondent’s first nonresponse to a survey invitation, following at least one previous survey completion. This approach has the advantage of utilizing information about survey experiences over multiple survey waves, while accommodating the unbalanced data structure typical of OPPs, where the number, timing, and content of survey invitations varies widely between panel members. We show that the nature and quality of previous survey experience has a strong influence on the propensity to respond to the next survey invitation. Longer surveys, reporting a survey as less enjoyable, a phone interview, and more days since the last survey invitation are found to be important predictors of nonresponse. We also find strong effects of personality on response propensity across survey invitations. Our findings have important implications for survey designers wishing to minimize nonresponse and attrition from OPPs.
When Bilingual Ballot Designs Promote or Undermine Inclusivity: Evidence from Three Studies
Amy H Liu, Sam Selsky, Meiying Xu, Joel Yew
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Do bilingual ballot designs promote inclusivity? While ethnic politics scholars have argued about the importance of accommodating minorities, there has been little attention paid to one specific institution: the ballot. Likewise, while we know ballot designs are important, the empirical focus has strictly been on monolingual ballots. In this paper, we identify three designs: (1) single: monolingual ballots; (2) separated: one bilingual ballot with two columns, with one language per column; and (3) stacked: one bilingual ballot with one column, with languages collated for each race. We argue that attitudes are most inclusive when ballots are stacked—that is, there are multiple languages sharing the same space. However, this is only the case when language is not a politicized issue. When it is, attitudes in fact become exclusive. To test, we employ three studies that vary on their extent of language politicization: (1) no politicization—the use of an indigenous language and an immigrant language next to Chinese in Taiwan; (2) politicization of the majority language—the use of Spanish alongside English in Texas; and (3) politicization of a minority language—the use of Russian and English in the Republic of Georgia. The results are robust and consistent with our theoretical expectations. Given that the foundation of democracy rests on citizens being able to exercise their voice, it is imperative that we accommodate minority languages effectively on the ballot.
The Microfoundations of Negotiated Peace: Generalized Trust and Support for Peace Processes in Colombia and Guatemala
Ryan E Carlin, Gregory J Love, Jennifer L McCoy, Jelena Subotic
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Why do citizens support negotiated solutions to internal conflicts? We develop a theoretical framework drawing insights from prosocial generalized trust orientations and classic models of public opinion. We expect generalized trust—a baseline belief in the trustworthiness of others as members of a shared moral community—to be positively associated with support for negotiated peace. Original survey and behavioral data collected during the peace talks between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and survey data following the Guatemalan peace agreement are consistent with this hypothesis. Standard public opinion models suggest that this association should strengthen as negotiated peace grows in salience, a hypothesis compatible with rolling cross-sectional survey analyses and placebo tests surrounding Colombia’s 2016 peace referendum. By linking prosocial generalized trusting dispositions to attitudes toward negotiated peace outcomes, our findings advance our knowledge of the microfoundations of international relations and conflict resolution.
Lingua Franca of Ideology? Common and Country-Specific Measures of Symbolic and Operational Ideology in Asian and Western Countries
Ikuma Ogura, Hirofumi Miwa, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Yuko Kasuya
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Comparative public opinion surveys, including the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), often rely on identical labels and question items to measure respondents’ symbolic and operational ideology across countries. However, it remains unclear whether common symbolic measures of ideology carry the same meaning across contexts, or whether the issue items used to construct common operational measures are equally relevant in national settings. To address these concerns, we compare symbolic and operational ideology as measured using common cross-national items and country-specific items. We conducted public opinion surveys before and after national elections in seven Asian and Western countries. Our analyses reveal that (i) country-specific measures of ideology are generally more stable over time than common measures, (ii) country-specific symbolic and operational ideology are more strongly associated with each other than their common counterparts, (iii) respondents tend to have a greater understanding of country-specific ideological labels than common ones, (iv) country-specific measures are generally more predictive of vote choice in elections, and (v) ideological extremity, as measured by these two types of indicators, shows different correlations with respondents’ attitudes toward democratic values. These findings suggest that researchers should use country-specific measures of ideology in comparative public opinion research.
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Joseph B Phillips, Jac M Larner
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The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generations in the United Kingdom are losing attachment to the monarchy and increasingly support its abolition. However, it could also be that diffuse support for the monarchy increases as people gain experience with it (age effect) or from time-specific factors (period effects). To adjudicate between these possibilities, we estimate age, period, and cohort effects on support for continuing the British monarchy among the UK public. We find that support for continuing the monarchy increases considerably with age. Conversely, we detected few period effects, as public opinion has remained stable over time, and there is little clear evidence that support for the monarchy is lower among younger generations. These findings indicate that support for the monarchy will likely remain stable, and even increase, considering Britain’s aging population. The monarchy thus represents a valuable case for understanding how symbolic institutions persist in democratic societies despite lacking procedural fairness, accountability, or instrumental function, a pattern with implications for other non-performance-based institutions like appointed chambers, established churches, and ceremonial offices.
Enhancing Participation in Web Tracking Studies Through Monetary Incentives: Experimental Evidence from an Academic Data Collection Infrastructure
Judith Gilsbach, Joachim G Piepenburg, Frank Mangold, Sebastian Stier, Bernd WeiĂź
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Web tracking studies provide unique insights into digital behavior but face challenges related to participant recruitment and attrition. This study examines how different monetary incentive structures—unconditional and conditional—and incentive amounts affect key recruitment stages: consent to participate in web tracking, installation of tracking software, and attrition after installation. To assess the effectiveness of monetary incentives across probabilistic and nonprobabilistic recruitment methods, we implement a preregistered experiment with 1,862 participants in the GESIS Panel.dbd—an academic infrastructure for collecting and linking digital behavioral data with survey data in Germany. Results show that unconditional incentives increase consent rates, whereas conditional incentives more effectively foster installation and, in particular, sustain participation after installation. While probabilistic recruitment poses challenges for initial consent, participation levels hereafter remain comparable across recruitment methods. These findings contribute to the development of cost-effective incentive strategies aimed at enhancing participation in web tracking studies.
Simplified or Misunderstood? Rethinking How We Measure Americans’ Abortion Attitudes in the Post- Roe Era
Natalie Hernandez
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Standard measures of abortion attitudes, such as the American National Election Survey’s four-point scale, do not capture public opinion on the dimensions that structure the post-Roe abortion policy landscape. While these traditional measures rely on broad, categorical distinctions, contemporary policy debates increasingly hinge on two specific factors: the reason for seeking an abortion and the gestational age of the fetus. To address this mismatch, I develop an original survey instrument that measures opinion along these dimensions. Using data from a large-scale survey (N = 69,752), I show that continuing to use the ANES scale introduces partisan-driven, nonrandom measurement error. Specifically, Democrats and Republicans who select the same ANES response hold systematically different policy preferences, and respondents with comparable policy preferences select different ANES answer choices depending on their partisanship—with Democrats anchoring their answers to a more permissive baseline. These findings underscore the risk of relying on broad-based attitudinal scales that do not evolve alongside the policy debates they are meant to capture.
The Relevance of Culture: Collectivism Reduces Negativity Biases in Political Trust
Baowen Liang
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In political science, extensive research has explored negativity biases in citizens’ attitudes and behaviors. In particular, we know that citizens’ political evaluations tend to be more strongly influenced by negative than positive perceptions of traits, events, and policy outcomes. In this paper, I argue that culture is a significant yet understudied correlate of negativity biases. A multilevel analysis using the World Values Survey (WVS) demonstrates that the negativity bias in political trust weakens as a society’s level of collectivism increases. Next, I explore the effect of cultural values at the individual level with data from the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS). In line with the results from the WVS, I find that collectivism reduces the negative-positive asymmetry in citizens’ political trust based on perceived institutional performance. These results suggest that negativity biases should not be universally assumed as a defining feature of citizens’ attitudes toward government across different cultural contexts.
Partisan Approval for the Supreme Court After Dobbs : The Demise of Presidential Copartisanship?
Brandon L Bartels, Eric Kramon
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Prior research demonstrates that partisan alignment with the president—presidential copartisanship—has structured Supreme Court job approval and confidence for multiple decades. Presidential copartisans are more approving of the Court than outpartisans, an effect that persists throughout a presidency despite high-salience Court decisions. We examine whether the presidential copartisanship effect persisted into the Biden era despite Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (2022) and other conservative rulings. We extend rolling cross-sectional job approval and confidence data through 2024, with surveys before and after Dobbs. We show that the presidential copartisanship effect disappears after Dobbs. Moreover, after Dobbs, partisan divisions reach historic highs, with Democrats dropping to record low approval levels (14 percent). We elaborate on whether this new dynamic will persist and its implications for Supreme Court legitimacy and decision-making.
Origins of Public Agenda Capacity: The Role of Attention, Information, and Civic Resources
Tevfik Murat Yildirim, Min Kyu Chang, Laron K Williams
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Research has shown that issue importance is a significant mediator of various political phenomena, such as issue voting, political fragmentation, and substantive representation, among many others. Studies focusing on issue prioritization among voters often relied on the implicit assumption that the issue-carrying capacity of the public—the number of issues the public prioritizes at a time—is relatively fixed over time because of individual-level limitations in the human cognitive architecture. However, prior research testing the limits of this assumption utilized mostly aggregate-level data to examine agenda capacity. We relax this assumption and argue that individuals differ greatly in the number of policy problems they prioritize. Drawing on an original dataset of content-coded verbatim answers to the Most Important Problem (MIP) question in American National Election Studies surveys (1980–2020) and a secondary source of legislative bills, we show that both attention to politics, civic resources, and information environment influence the extent to which respondents prioritize (i) a large number of issues and (ii) issues from different policy areas. These findings advance our understanding of single-issue voters and voters who display more complex issue prioritization behavior, which has important implications for various fields of study, including voting behavior, issue competition, and elite-voter linkages.

Social Science Computer Review

Artificial Intelligence in Government Weakens Citizens’ Affective Ties With Public Employees: Results From a Vignette Experiment
Pascal D. Koenig, Sveinung Arnesen
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This article examines how citizens’ perceptions of public employees in the education system change as these employees adopt artificial intelligence (AI) in their work. It argues that the use of AI matters for citizens’ perceptions of decision-making not only due to AI system characteristics, but also because AI adoption alters the perceived relationship between citizens and public organizations. Rooted in assumptions of social cognition theory, the analysis tests how information about AI use by public employees alters the perceived warmth of these employees and thereby affects the acceptability of decision-making. The analysis is based on a pre-registered vignette experiment and a sample of 4,569 participants from Norway. It finds that AI use decreases both the perceived warmth and competence of public employees, that these evaluations negatively bear on the overall acceptability of decision-making, and that the effect of AI use is stronger for public employees more directly interacting with others.
From Trivial to Meaningful: The Moderating Role of Perceived Satisfaction in the Relationship Between Incidental Exposure and Political Participation
Jinwan Kim, Melissa R. Gotlieb
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Scholars have studied the relationship between incidental exposure (i.e., encountering political information unintentionally) and political participation. Nevertheless, the dynamic processes relating incidental exposure to political participation remain unclear. Building upon the political incidental news exposure (PINE) and social media political participation (SMPP) models, this study ( N = 702) examines first- and second-level incidental exposure and its relationship to low-effort online and high-effort political participation. Furthermore, it examines whether perceived satisfaction from low-effort online participation moderates the relationship between incidental exposure and high-effort participation. Results suggest that second-level incidental exposure relates to greater low-effort online participation, which, in turn, opens a pathway to high-effort participation, especially when individuals perceive such participation as satisfying and able to address social and political issues. These findings provide a nuanced understanding of the pathways from incidental exposure to political participation, contributing to the broader literature on political communication and behavior in the digital age.