I checked 18 political science journals on Saturday, December 20, 2025 using the Crossref API. For the period December 13 to December 19, I found 34 new paper(s) in 12 journal(s).

American Political Science Review

Mapping the Political Contours of the Regulatory State: Dynamic Estimates of Agency Ideal Points
ALEX ACS
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This article introduces a novel empirical method for estimating the ideological orientations of U.S. regulatory agencies across different presidential administrations. Employing a measurement model based on item response theory and analyzing data on planned regulations from the Unified Agenda and the president’s discretionary review of those regulations, as implemented by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the study provides dynamic estimates of agency ideal points from the Clinton through the Trump administrations. The model uses NOMINATE ideal points of presidents to link the estimated agency ideal points to legislative ideal points. The resulting estimates correlate positively with existing measures of agency ideology, highlight controversial regulators, and demonstrate that agency ideologies shift over time due to emerging issues that divide the parties. The study also finds that agencies located ideologically closer to the president are more productive, as evidenced by their regulatory output.

British Journal of Political Science

Quality Not Quantity: How a VAA Affected Voting Behavior in Three Large-Scale Field Experiments
Joris Frese, Simon Hix, Romain Lachat
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Voting-advice applications (VAAs) are increasingly popular, but their impact on electoral outcomes is contested among political scientists. To bring new and stronger evidence to this debate, we conducted a series of pre-registered studies during the 2024 European Parliament elections in Germany, Italy, and France. In this paper, we report results for the highest-powered VAA encouragement experiment to date (total n = 6,501) and a novel regression discontinuity design around VAA recommendation thresholds ( n = 10,535). While we observe null effects of VAA usage on voter turnout, the frequency of vote switching, and political knowledge, we find that our VAAs significantly improved the quality of vote switching: users were more likely to vote for their ideologically most aligned party. Based on these findings and a rich battery of supplementary analyses, we conclude that VAAs are effective precisely for their intended purpose: to help voters make better-informed vote choices.
Race, Gender, and Nascent Political Ambition
Andrea Junqueira, Diana Z. O’Brien, Matthew Hayes, Jongwoo Jeong, Brian Crisp, Matthew Gabel
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How do race and gender together shape Americans’ political ambition? Using original survey data with over-samples of black and Hispanic respondents, we analyze citizens’ nascent ambition for eight political offices across racial/ethnic groups and gender. We reveal that the primary gap in nascent political ambition is not between men and women but between white men and the majority of the polity. There is no consistent gender gap in ambition among black or Hispanic respondents, nor between black and Hispanic men and white women. The gap between white men and other respondents is most pronounced for local offices, which mark both the starting point and final stage of many political careers. Our findings further indicate that while white men are particularly responsive to encouragement from non-political sources, ambition gaps narrow among respondents encouraged by political actors. Together, these insights help explain the persistence of white men’s overrepresentation in US politics.
Parties’ Ideological Cores and Peripheries: Examining How Parties Balance Adaptation and Continuity in Their Manifestos
Annika Werner, Fabian Habersack
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How do political parties balance policy adaptation with ideological continuity? While spatial models emphasise external factors driving party behaviour, less attention has been given to internal party choices. This article innovates by proposing that parties differentiate between and make distinct strategical decisions regarding their ideological core and peripheral policy areas. We argue that parties maintain continuity in their ideological core while exhibiting greater flexibility in modifying their periphery. Using the Manifesto Project Corpus and an XLM-RoBERTa-based language model, we analyse manifesto sections to distinguish core from peripheral segments. Our findings show that parties take clearer stances in their ideological core while adapting their periphery more flexibly, with niche parties displaying this pattern more strongly than mainstream parties. Electoral setbacks lead parties to adopt more extreme peripheries, while cores remain stable. These results highlight the strategic importance of the core–periphery distinction in party communication and suggest that studies of party competition should consider where policy shifts occur within parties’ electoral programmes.
Gendered Political Contexts, Emotions, and Engagement: A Case Study of the 2016 US Presidential Election
Stephanie L. DeMora, Jennifer L. Merolla, Maricruz Ariana Osorio, Christian Lindke, Sean Long
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The 2016 election serves as an important case study in understanding how gendered political contexts can shape emotional reactions and engagement, particularly among women. Two important features of that election, Trump’s treatment of women and Clinton’s historic run for office, influenced emotional reactions to politics in distinct ways. We used two experimental designs in which participants were randomly assigned to read vignettes about Trump’s treatment of women or Clinton’s historic run for office. Reading about the former led to higher anger, especially among Democratic women and men, while reading about the latter increased enthusiasm among highly educated women. These elevated emotions increased intended future engagement. We conducted a third study in which we induced anger about Trump’s treatment of women and found that it led to greater intended engagement.

Electoral Studies

How do underrepresented voters view electoral system trade-offs?
Don S. Lee, Charles T. McClean
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Issues of high potential: A novel methodology to uncover unactivated public policy demands
James Breckwoldt
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European Journal of Political Research

Populism and governmentalism as thin-centered ideologies: Emotions and frames on social media
Giuliano Formisano, Jörg Friedrichs, Florian S. Schaffner, Niklas Stoehr
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No existing model of political rhetoric fully captures the complex interplay between the mainstream-populism divide and appealing to emotions like fear and anger. We present a new conceptualization and procedure that defines populism in relation to governmentalism, operationalizes both through communication frames, and allows for the analysis of emotions. We separate governmentalist-populist contestation from contestation between government and opposition, solving a longstanding theoretical and empirical problem. Analyzing one million tweets by politicians and their audiences, we fine-tune and employ supervised machine learning (transformer models) to classify populist and governmentalist communication. We find that populist tweets appeal more to anger and more to fear than governmentalist tweets. While we deploy our approach for tweets about Coronavirus in the UK, the procedure is transferable to other contexts and communication platforms.
Judicial review and territorial conflicts: Evidence from Spain
Joan-Josep Vallbé, Daniel Cetrà, Marc Sanjaume-Calvet
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Constitutional courts (CCs) in federal and quasi-federal systems are often expected to act as neutral arbiters in conflicts between levels of government. This article challenges that assumption by analysing the behavior of Spain’s Constitutional Court over four decades of constitutional litigation. Drawing on an original dataset of 1,888 rulings on all challenges to national and regional legislation (1981–2023), we examine how judicial outcomes are shaped by political alignment, institutional design, and court ideology. Our analysis reveals a consistent pattern of deference to the central government, especially when the Court is ideologically conservative or aligned with the federal executive. These results support a strategic model of judicial behavior and raise broader questions about the role of CCs in multilevel systems. Rather than acting as counter-majoritarian forces, courts may reinforce central dominance in center–periphery conflicts, limiting their capacity to protect territorial pluralism in practice.

Political Analysis

Stay Tuned: Improving Sentiment Analysis and Stance Detection Using Large Language Models
Max Griswold, Michael W. Robbins, Michael S. Pollard
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Sentiment analysis and stance detection are key tasks in text analysis, with applications ranging from understanding political opinions to tracking policy positions. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) offer significant potential to enhance sentiment analysis techniques and to evolve them into the more nuanced task of detecting stances expressed toward specific subjects. In this study, we evaluate lexicon-based models, supervised models, and LLMs for stance detection using two corpuses of social media data—a large corpus of tweets posted by members of the U.S. Congress on Twitter and a smaller sample of tweets from general users—which both focus on opinions concerning presidential candidates during the 2020 election. We consider several fine-tuning strategies to improve performance—including cross-target tuning using an assumption of congressmembers’ stance based on party affiliation—and strategies for fine-tuning LLMs, including few shot and chain-of-thought prompting. Our findings demonstrate that: 1) LLMs can distinguish stance on a specific target even when multiple subjects are mentioned, 2) tuning leads to notable improvements over pretrained models, 3) cross-target tuning can provide a viable alternative to in-target tuning in some settings, and 4) complex prompting strategies lead to improvements over pretrained models but underperform tuning approaches.
Political DEBATE: Efficient Zero-Shot and Few-Shot Classifiers for Political Text
Michael Burnham, Kayla Kahn, Ryan Yang Wang, Rachel X. Peng
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Social scientists have quickly adopted large language models (LLMs) for their ability to annotate documents without supervised training, an ability known as zero-shot classification. However, due to their computational demands, cost, and often proprietary nature, these models are frequently at odds with open science standards. This article introduces the Political Domain Enhanced BERT-based Algorithm for Textual Entailment (DEBATE) language models: Foundation models for zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised classification of political documents. As zero-shot classifiers, the models are designed to be used for common, well-defined tasks, such as topic and opinion classification. When used in this context, the DEBATE models are not only as good as state-of-the-art LLMs at zero-shot classification, but are orders of magnitude more efficient and completely open source. We further demonstrate that the models are effective few-shot learners. With a simple random sample of 10–25 documents, they can outperform supervised classifiers trained on hundreds or thousands of documents and state-of-the-art generative models. Additionally, we release the PolNLI dataset used to train these models—a corpus of over 200,000 political documents with highly accurate labels across over 800 classification tasks.

Political Behavior

Political Bias in College Student Access To Campus Resources
Jessica Khan
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Political Geography

Polish geopolitical vertigo: Grassroots popular geopolitics meets right-wing populism
Anna Wojciuk, Tomasz PawƂuszko
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Amplifying vulnerability: State policy and the consolidation of a migratory chokepoint on Mexico's southern border
Miguel Paradela LĂłpez, Charles Larratt-Smith
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Review forum
Somdeep Sen, Debbie Lisle, Naji Safadi, Lana Tatour, Rhys Machold
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Political Psychology

From cognitive coherence to political polarization: A data‐driven agent‐based model of belief change
Marlene C. L. Batzke, Peter Steiglechner, Jan Lorenz, Bruce Edmonds, FrantiĆĄek Kalvas
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Political polarization represents a rising issue in many countries, making it more and more important to understand its relation to cognitive‐motivational and social influence mechanisms. Yet, the link between micro‐level mechanisms and macro‐level phenomena remains unclear. We investigated the consequences of individuals striving for cognitive coherence in their belief systems on political polarization in society in an agent‐based model. In this, we formalized how cognitive coherence affects how individuals update their beliefs following social influence and self‐reflection processes. We derive agents' political beliefs as well as their subjective belief systems, defining what determines coherence for different individuals, from European Social Survey data via correlational class analysis. The simulation shows that agents polarize in their beliefs when they have a strong strive for cognitive coherence, and especially when they have structurally different belief systems. In a mathematical analysis, we not only explain the main findings but also underscore the necessity of simulations for understanding the complex dynamics of socially embedded phenomena such as political polarization.
How leading climate movement advocates perceive collective gridlock in social change advocacy
Janquel D. Acevedo, Ava Disney, Kelly S. Fielding, Catherine E. Amiot, Matthew J. Hornsey, Fathali M. Moghaddam, Emma F. Thomas, Stewart Sutherland, Susilo Wibisono, Winnifred R. Louis
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Despite mass mobilization efforts, most countries are failing to meet their internationally agreed 2030 goals to mitigate climate change, representing a failure of the climate movement to achieve their key aspirations. Most research on failure and collective action examines one‐off failures but does not address lasting failure. We conceptualize this ongoing failure as collective gridlock: times in social change advocacy where insufficient progress is caused by antagonistic intergroup stalemates, preventing groups from achieving shared goals and addressing joint problems. We used semi‐structured interviews with climate movement leaders ( N = 28) to explore collective gridlock and the processes that may be associated with it. Most advocates believed they were in gridlock as they perceived insufficient progress toward their movement's goals. Evidence for the proposed processes of attrition, group norms of purity and intransigence, moral conviction, hostility toward the outgroup, radicalization, and perceived counter‐mobilization emerged in the interviews. Contrary to expectations, climate movement leaders also reported a need to build coalitions and compromise, and they also discussed negative well‐being as an outcome of collective gridlock. The current study contributes to our understanding of persistent failure in the climate movement and its implications for social change advocacy.

Political Science Research and Methods

How voters respond to economic shocks from abroad
Costin Ciobanu, Joost van Spanje
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Research on economic voting shows that negative economic events typically reduce government support. However, we argue that external economic shocks may have the opposite effect: when faced with a foreign economic threat, voters will rally behind their government despite worsening economic perceptions. Using the unexpected collapse of Lehman Brothers (15 September 2008) as a case, we analyze European Social Survey data from six countries and find that while satisfaction with national economies declined, satisfaction with governments gradually rose. We document that rising media and political attention coincided with a rally effect fueled by past opposition voters and muted opposition elites. These findings demonstrate that foreign economic shocks influence democratic accountability and the ability of governments to act during hard times.
Participatory unilateralism: understanding Congress’s role in presidential unilateral policymaking
Annie Benn
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Recent scholarship highlights that executive orders issued by the president are not truly ‘unilateral,’ but require cooperation from administrative agencies for implementation. I argue that, because of this role for agencies, congressional committees can use oversight to shape executive order implementation. I demonstrate this dynamic using two datasets: a sample of executive orders that have been coded using measures of executive-branch delegation and discretion, and a collection of congressional hearings focusing on an executive order or its implementation. I find that Congress engages in more oversight activity when an order delegates more authority and a wider discretionary window to agencies. This finding reveals a previously overlooked form of interbranch conflict, and broadens our understanding of the politics of unilateralism.
Preemptive multipartism and democratic transitions
Natån Skigin, Aníbal Pérez-Liñån
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Scholars debate whether the presence of multiple parties in the legislature stabilizes dictatorships or promotes their demise. We show that authoritarian regimes face a dilemma: allowing for multipartism reduces the risk of bottom-up revolt, but facilitates protracted top-down democratization. Concessions to the opposition diminish the long-term benefits of authoritarian rule and empower regime soft-liners. We test our theory in Latin America—a region with a broad range of autocracies —using survival models, instrumental variables, random forests, and two case studies. Our theory explains why rational autocrats accept multipartism, even though this concession may ultimately undermine the regime. It also accounts for democratic transitions that occur when the opposition is fragmented and without a stunning authoritarian defeat.
Selectively (il)liberal: theory and evidence on nativist disidentification
Alberto LĂłpez Ortega, Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte
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Does group-based tribal thinking against ethnic out-groups condition support for both liberal and illiberal policies? Our thesis is that, irrespective of the direction of the policy (progressive or conservative), nativists express selective support for policies based on different signals of group-identity: descriptive markers, group-based substantive representation, in- and out-group norms, and group-based reasoning. We test this theoretical expectation using a novel AI-powered visual conjoint experiment in the Netherlands and Germany that asked individuals to select between hypothetical educational reform proposals presented by civic actors during a public consultation. Empirically, our results demonstrate that citizens, on average, are indeed selectively (il)liberal and that this instrumental policy support is greater among those with higher levels of underlying nativism. Specifically, we show that—among our multidimensional markers of group-based identities, norms, and reasoning—group-based substantive representation and in-group norms are the strongest determinants of support for diverse reform proposals. These findings have key implications on the malleable nature of citizens’ support for the backsliding of the liberal tenets of democracy as well as the persuasive power of out-group disidentification .

PS: Political Science & Politics

Contingent Confidence: The Effect of the 2024 Election Outcome on Public and Elite Confidence in National Elections
Joshua D. Clinton
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Using a rolling cross-section survey of 54,000 voters conducted between mid-October and mid-December, a panel survey of 6,000 voters interviewed in both October and December, and surveys of 1,400 local political elites and officials conducted in both October and December, this study characterizes how confidence in the accuracy of national elections changed with the projected election of President Trump on Election Day. Among voters, Republican confidence immediately increased by 31 percentage points (123% change) and Democrats’ confidence declined by 12 percentage points (16% change) such that the confidence among partisan voters was almost identical by mid-December. The most polarized partisans exhibited the largest confidence changes. Among local political elites, the increase in Republicans’ confidence mirrored the increase among Republican voters (106% change), but the confidence among Democratic political elites remained high throughout. These findings highlight troubling concerns for sustaining a shared confidence in the accuracy and legitimacy of future elections.
Only in it for Power and Wealth? The Neglect of Policy-Seeking Motives among Dictators
Matilde Tofte Thorsen
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Contrary to the dominant literature on autocracies, this article argues and demonstrates that dictators, in addition to being office-seeking, often are driven by policy-seeking motivation—that is, broader beliefs and ideology. The empirical investigation enlists new original data, based on obituaries, about dictators’ political motives. The dataset contains information on 297 deceased dictators who held power at some point during the period 1945–2008. The results reveal that the dictators had a variety of different motives for being in power. Many were strongly ideologically motivated, several were primarily motivated by money and power ambitions, and others held power to create stability and democratize. Thus, dictators’ motives seem to be substantially more diverse than typically assumed, and the data make it possible to measure motivation. This is key to investigating the direct as well as the conditional impact on political dynamics in autocracies.
Forecasting the 2025 German Election: An Introduction
Bruno JérÎme, Andreas Graefe
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German federal elections have long drawn international attention due to the country’s economic influence and its pivotal role in the European Union. Over time, forecasting these elections has evolved into a sophisticated discipline, incorporating diverse models and refined methodologies to improve accuracy. Since 2013, PS: Political Science & Politics has played a key role in tracking these developments by publishing three special symposia dedicated to forecasting German elections (JĂ©rĂŽme 2013, 2017; JĂ©rĂŽme and Graefe 2022). This 2025 symposium marks the fourth installment, continuing a tradition of providing scholars with a platform to share insights and reflect on the field’s ongoing expansion.
Mobilizing Fear in the 2023 Polish General Elections: Immigration Anxiety as a Populist Strategy for Re-election
Magdalena MusiaƂ-Karg, Fernando Casal BĂ©rtoa
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This article analyzes how Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) weaponized migration anxiety as a populist strategy during the 2023 general elections. Using a comparative qualitative case-study approach (George and Bennett 2005), the article examines how PiS leveraged anti-immigration rhetoric to mobilize voters, deepen social polarization, and legitimize its governance. The study draws comparisons with Hungary’s 2016 referendum on European Union (EU) refugee quotas to explore how populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) use fear-based narratives to consolidate power. It also demonstrates how PiS emulated Viktor Orbán’s 2022 strategy of holding a referendum alongside parliamentary elections to retain power. The study finds that PiS framed migration as an existential threat, using the referendum as a tool to divert attention from democratic backsliding. This strategy mirrored Orbán’s use of anti-immigration campaigns to strengthen his electoral support and resist EU pressures. By expanding on the concept of “populist polarizing referendum,” the study contributes to research on populist electoral strategies, institutional manipulation, and the role of migration-related fear in political mobilization. It highlights the broader implications of such tactics for democracy and governance in the CEE region, demonstrating how populist leaders instrumentalize migration crises to sustain electoral dominance.

Public Choice

Does the US individual income tax display systemic racism? Negative evidence from audited US federal tax return data for 1967–73
Robert P. Strauss, Miguel Gouveia
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Official statistics from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Bureau of the Census have long documented differences by ethnicity in employment rates and incomes. Recently, it has been suggested that the structure of the US federal individual tax system is 'systemically racist' which we interpret to mean that the application of the Internal Revenue Code through collection of individual income taxes adversely affects African American compared to White individuals and households. This paper contributes to the public discussion of possible systemic racism in the US tax system issue by studying an unusual set of US individual income tax data. These data differ from those used in other studies in two important ways. First, race is not imputed but obtained from the administrative records of the Social Security Administration. Second, the income tax data are audited tax return data. Using these audited and administratively matched data, we estimate effective income tax functions with an explicit role for race. After accounting for the basic structure of the US tax system, we find no statistical evidence of systemic racism in the operation of the US federal individual income tax during the period under study. Our results show that once income and filing status are taken into account, the effective tax rate tax did not vary by race—a finding that remains robust across multiple checks.

The Journal of Politics

Do External Threats Reduce Affective Polarization? An Experiment on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Jonas Pilgaard Kaiser, Markus Seier
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Keep Winning with WinRed? Online Fundraising Platform as the Party’s Public Good
Seo-young Silvia Kim, Zhao Li
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Donors and Dollars: Comparing the Policy Views of Donors and the Affluent
Michael Barber, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Joshua Clinton, Gregory Huber
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Cycles of Silence: Police–Citizen Cooperation in Communities with Criminal Groups
Andrew Cesare Miller
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Bureaucrats in Congress: The Politics of Interbranch Information Sharing
Pamela Ban, Ju Yeon Park, Hye Young You
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When Conservatives See Red but Liberals Feel Blue: Labeler Characteristics and Variation in Content Annotation
Nora Webb Williams, Andreu Casas, Kevin Aslett, John Wilkerson
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Expectations, Gender Bias, and Federal Reserve Talk: Do Americans Trust Women as Central Bankers?
Cristina Bodea, Andrew Kerner
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Does School Debating Reduce Vulnerability to Misinformation? A Field Experiment in Poland
Krzysztof Krakowski, Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg, Davide Morisi
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